The February 19th trade deadline is quickly looming. If you crave big moves and trades, this is the most promising deadline in years as the league is split into 3 groups:
1. Teams bleeding money from the recession, looking to dump salary (Sellers)
2. Contenders or playoff teams with money seeing a golden oppurtunity to buy talent at a low price (Buyers)
3. Teams with their eye on 2010 free agency where Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and others will hit the market, who are looking to clear capspace (Also sellers)
The result is a perfect storm where almost every team is involved in the trade market
The number of fringe all-star and "franchise" names on the block is surprising. These include Andre Iguodala, Kevin Martin, Devin Harris, Al Jefferson, Chris Kaman, and David West. All of these players are expensive and on losing teams. If you're losing with them on the team, why not lose at a cheaper price? A number of teams are envious of Oklahoma City and Memphis' success building with young players and rookie contracts
Amare Stoudemire is one of the biggest names on the market. There are 2 certainties involving the 5 time all-star: a) Amare wants a huge 100 - 130 million contract this summer. b) The Suns don't want to give it to him. Thus they are looking to deal Amare while they can. Here are the 5 Amare trades I believe make the most sense:
Trade 1Philadelphia trades: Andre Iguodala, Willie Green
Phoenix trades: Amare Stoudemire
Why for Philadelphia? The 76ers as much as anyone in the league are looking to cut salary. Burdened by massive contracts to Andre Iguodala (5 years, 68.6 million) Elton Brand (4 years, 63 million), Samuel Dalembert (2 years, 24.9 million), and Jason Kapono (2 years, 12.8 million) and with a league worst record and attendance, the Sixers are a prime dumping candidate. The problem is nobody will take any of those contracts except for Iguodala. To save money the Sixers will be forced to either dump Iguodala at a low price in this market, or to sacrifice young pieces like Thaddeus Young, Mareese Speights, and Jrue Holliday to make someone bite on Dalembert's contract
Ideally the Sixers would trade away Iguodala and Dalembert together for expiring contracts (Iguodala and Brand together is out of the question). But the list of teams who will add 25 million in salary next year is slim to none. It's more likely the Sixers settle for dumping Willie Green or Jason Kapono instead with Iguodala, saving them a lesser but still formidable 16-18 million next year
But there is a strong word the Sixers don't want to dump Iguodala for pure expirings like Memphis did with Pau Gasol because of the fan and media backlash. The 76ers are already struggling to sell tickets, giving away their only marketable player is making a big problem even worse. But if they traded Iguodala for a perenniel all-star in Amare Stoudemire? Now they increase ticket sales and bring positive media hype, achieving the opposite effect. The Sixers can quietly plan to not resign Amare at the end of the year, where they can sign and trade him for more young value
Why for Phoenix? Iguodala is a young, fringe all-star who fits perfectly beside Nash in a Shawn Marion like role. With Iguodala in Amare's place the Suns can still push for the playoffs this year. Phoenix will likely not bite on an Iguodala and Dalembert package as they are too financially frisky to take on 25 million in extra salary next year, as that would push them into the luxury tax again.
Trade #2Golden State gets: Amare Stoudemire
Phoenix gets: Anthony Randolph, Vladimir Radmanovic, Speedy Claxton
Why for Golden State? Amare fits right into the Warriors overwhelmingly offensively orientated, high tempo system, and the word is the Warriors are looking for an all-star centerpiece to compliment Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette. The Warriors were a hair away from acquiring Amare last draft day, allegedly backing out once Stephen Curry fell to 7th place in the draft.
The main Amare concern for Golden State is resigning him this summer. But Golden State's ability to pay Amare 130 million next to everyone else's 100 million offers likely lures him in
Why for Phoenix? Anthony Randolph is a young hyper-athletic PF who makes up for their lack of a lottery pick this year. Financially they only take on Radmanovic's 6.8 million next year. Secondly they cut 3 million of immediate salary, which doubles to 6 million savings with the luxury tax added in. The Suns are currently 4.9 million over the lux tax, this deal takes them down to a manageable 1.9 million over.
Trade #3Miami gets:
Amare Stoudemire
Phoenix gets:
Miami 2010 1st
Toronto 2010 1st
Udonis Haslem
Quention Richardson
3 million
Why for Miami? The Heat are 24-24 and are 17-23 in their last 40 games and only 2 games out of 9th place. With Dwyane Wade approaching free agency, the Heat may be pushed to make a move to save their season. For years Pat Riley's eye has been on 2010 free agency where they can lure Lebron or Bosh. All indications are he won't deviate from that. However if Riley can use his 2 draft picks to acquire Amare, the team improves without wasting the 2010 plan
Why for Phoenix? Phoenix receives two badly needed 1st round draft picks. They take nothing but expiring contracts on financially, so this frees them up long term more than the above 2 deals. This is a true rebuilding move remiscient of the Suns trading Stephon Marbury and Penny Hardaway to New York for a 1st round pick and expiring contracts
Trade #4Washington gets:
Amare Stoudemire, Jason Richardson, Jarron Collins, Taylor Griffin, Lou Amundson
Phoenix gets:
Brendan Haywood, Mike Miller, Mike James, Deshawn Stevenson, Andray Blatche, Fabricio Oberto
Why for Washington? After Juwan Howard and Gilbert Arenas' contracts, it's far too easy to visualize Amare making 20 million a year on a mediocore Wizards team. Giving big contracts and is what they do. With that said, they get a legitimate star player at little cost and if they trade Jamison, Butler, and Arenas is voided, they will have an entirely open salary bill. Perhaps with Amare in tow they can try to lure another big free agent like Wade or Lebron
Why for Phoenix? The most financially lucrative of the 5 deals, but the least lucrative for talent. They save 7.1 million next year turning Richardson into Stevenson/Blatche, the latter of which is a decent young PF. Brendan Haywood and Mike Miller help them make a playoff run this year which is clearly important for the Suns management.
Trade #5Chicago gets: Amare Stoudemire, Taylor Griffin
Phoenix gets: Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, James Johnson, 2010 1st
Why for Chicago? Amare fits right in at power forward on the Bulls and helps Chicago become a scary team in the playoffs this year. Secondly, trading Deng and Johnson frees 12 million in capspace for the 2010 free agent sweepstakes - If John Salmons opts out of his 5.8 million contract, Chicago will only have 20 million committed next year on Derrick Rose, Kirk Hinrich, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah, giving them enough caproom for 2 max free agents. Like one of Wade or Lebron and Amare and Bosh as the other. Yes it is possible Derrick Rose, Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Joakim Noah are on one team next year. Wow.
Why for Phoenix? Tyrus Thomas is a young athletic PF who could thrive with Nash, and they receive essentially two 15-20 picks with Johnson and the 2010 pick. Luol Deng is also only 25 and can fit in with a rebuilding effort
That's it for now. I don't guarantee an Amare deal will come from one of my 5, but all of these deals appear viable to me.
